2020.03.11

Official Numbers:

• 125,891 confirmed infected
• 4,616 confirmed deaths
• 67,039 confirmed recoveries
• 80,921 China
• 12,462 Italy
• 9,000 Iran
• 7,755 Korea, South
• 2,284 France
• 2,277 Spain
• 1,908 Germany
• 1,281 US
• 696 Cruise Ship
• 652 Switzerland
• 639 Japan
• 598 Norway
• 503 Netherlands
• 500 Sweden
• 459 United Kingdom
• 444 Denmark
• 314 Belgium
• 262 Qatar
• 246 Austria
• 195 Bahrain
• 178 Singapore
• 149 Malaysia
• 128 Australia
• 109 Israel
• 108 Canada

Site/Links

• Blog post laying out some inconvenient numbers

Oval Office speech

Today at 9pm EST, President Trump gave a speech from the oval office. The important points:

• Thirty day travel ban on Europe
• The UK is exempt from this
• All coronavirus-related medical costs to be covered in full by insurers
• “The risk is very very low” this is a bold-faced lie
• “young and healthy people can expect to recover very very quickly” this is also a lie
• Financial relief will be given to workers who have to self-quarantine
• “This is not a financial crisis, just a temporary obstacle” this is heavily downplaying things. We are not going to have a financial crisis, as banks are well capitalized, but a recession is likely
• SBA will provide low-interest loans to impacted small businesses
• Some kind of penalty-free delay on tax payments, I didn’t get the details
• Payroll tax relief is being proposed to congress

Overall, I don’t know what to make of this, but I don’t like it. The content of the speech seems grossly out of line with the level of gravitas around it. This is a great crisis… which is why I’m getting the government to give people loans. And they can pay their taxes late if they want.

I don’t know. Maybe my estimates and expectations are unrealistically pessimistic. Or maybe the government thinks that “only” one million lives isn’t that much of a price to pay (note: I expect on the order of 10x that many deaths before this is done). I was expecting him to announce some level of enforced quarantine or lockdown here.

WHO

• The World Health Organization finally used the P-word

Asia

• Kim Jong-un fled the capital to take shelter somewhere else

Europe:

• Italy has shut down all businesses except pharmacy and grocery. We are TWO WEEKS behind them

US:

• The Seattle Flu Study, which started testing for coronavirus when nobody else would, has been formally shut down by the feds on bullshit IRB grounds. It’s really like they want us all to die. I saw a rumour that they are working with the feds to start testing again but I don’t have the link handy
• The Federal Government has classified all top-level virus meetings
• DC declares state of emergency
• Tom Hanks and his wife test positive

Tech

• Google has started strongly encouraging all staff to work from home. It’s not mandatory yet.

Science/Medical

• The Droplet v Aerosol battle continues. Tests show new virus can live in the air for several hours