2020.04.04
Official Numbers
- 1,192,028 confirmed infections (Δ 93,180)
- 64,316 confirmed deaths (Δ 5,445)
- 245,981 confirmed recoveries (Δ 19,875)
- 430 confirmed infections in my city (Δ 0)
- 19 confirmed infections in my ZIP code (Δ 0)
- 4 confirmed deaths in my city (Δ 0)
- 305,820 US
- 124,870 Spain
- 124,632 Italy
- 95,614 Germany
- 90,842 France
- 82,543 China
- 55,743 Iran
- 42,449 United Kingdom
- 23,934 Turkey
- 20,505 Switzerland
- 18,431 Belgium
- 16,727 Netherlands
- 12,978 Canada
- 11,781 Austria
- 10,524 Portugal
- 10,278 Brazil
- 10,156 Korea, South
Updates
- Preliminary Estimates of the Prevalence of Selected Underlying Health Conditions. CDC publishes data. Important parts: 37.6% of coronavirus diagnoses are people with pre-existing conditions. 27% of non-hospitalized patients had pre-existing conditions. 71% of hospitalized non-ICU patients. 78% of ICU patients. For people with pre-existing conditions, non-ICU hospitalization rate is ~28% (vs ~7.5% for otherwise-healthy people). Rate of ICU admission was ~14% (vs 2.3% for otherwise-healthy people). This data is consistent with the idea that young, healthy people are at dramatically reduced risk relative to older or less healthy people
- US Flu Data. I don’t have any commentary, but it might be interesting to some.
- Notorious Internet-American Curtis Yarvin with his Plan A for the Coronavirus. Note that this author is widely considered to be a radical/extremist, so read with appropriate skepticism. TL;DR: his solution to this is the same as his solution to everything: Formalize existing government obligations as stock in a joint-stock company, empower a temporary dictator to do whatever it takes to fix the problem, and then cross your fingers and assume that it could never possibly go wrong.
- A brief reminder on Bayes rule. An antibody test that is 99% accurate still might generate many, many more false-positives than real-positives, if the base rate of disease is low.